Last quarter’s GDP growth rate fell to 5%, the growth in the previous quarter being slightly higher at 5.8%. Many international organisations and private entities in the business of forecasting are projecting current fiscal year GDP growth at below 6%.
The private consumption expenditure growth rate wen down from 11% to 3% between the last two quarters. The manufacturing sector is stagnating. Construction and real estate are also in bad shape. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) estimated India’s unemployment rate in 2017-18 to be 6.1%, which is over double that in 2011-12 when the unemployment rate was 2.7%. The labour force participation rate is also low at 37%.
COMBINATION OF CYCLICAL AND STRUCTURAL FACTORS MAKES RECOVERY DOUBLY DIFFICULT
Mihir Swarup Sharma (economist and Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation) rightly says the economy is on life support. It “is facing a perfect storm, beset by a combination of cyclical and structural factors that makes recovery doubly difficult. The immediate concern is crashing demand.” Nobel laureate Abhijit Banerjee points out that household consumption has fallen for the first time in “many, many, many, many years.” His advice: Get money into the hands of the rural poor and “pray.”
The immediate cause of the demand slowdown, according to Sharma “may have been the twin blows of demonetization and the new indirect tax regime, as well as the collapse of shadow banking credit last year……..”
This story is from the November 4,2019 edition of News behind the News.
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This story is from the November 4,2019 edition of News behind the News.
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TROUBLED TIME FOR MODI
The students’ unrest, however, which is spreading like wildfire across the nation, and the protests by large sections of people against the citizenship law, have belied the BJP’s hopes of having a free run in the foreseeable future in presiding over the country’s destiny from panchayats to parliament, as Union home minister Amit Shah once said.
MUST-WIN FOR BJP IN DELHI POLLS
Having failed to perform satisfactorily in the Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections, the BJP realizes that its rank and file will be hugely demoralized if it does not fare well in the forthcoming Delhi polls.
MILITARY MIGHT AT R-DAY PARADE
Anti-satellite weapon ‘Shakti’, lethal artillery gun ‘Dhanush’, and newly-inducted helicopters Apache and Chinook were among the key military assets showcased by India for the first time at the Republic Day parade on 26 January.
INDIA - PAKISTAN: DEALING WITH PAKISTAN'S AMBITIONS ON KASHMIR
Pakistan’s diplomatic offensive on Kashmir has gained some traction with the EU Parliament debating the issue along with the controversial Citizen’s (Amendment) Act (CAA).
EXPERT ANALYSES UNION BUDGET 2020-21: A MIXED BAG
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s second Budget presented three themes -- aspiring India, economic development, caring society. And it seeks to cater to the demand side of the economy by trying to put more money in the hands of individuals.
DELHI ELECTION: BJP HOPES TO GAIN FROM CAA INSTILLED POLARISATION
The anti-CAA protests took a violent turn as a 17-year-old teenager Thursday shot a Kashmiri protester near Jamia Millia Islamia University, Delhi.
CAA DEBATE IN EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: INDIA UNDER PRESSURE
Much to the relief of India, the European Parliament Wednesday decided to put off a vote on a resolution critical of India’s Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) to a session beginning on March 2. The move is being seen as linked to the upcoming India-EU Summit next month.
JAMMU AND KASHMIR: BJP IN A TIGHT CORNER
The government’s policies on Kashmir give the impression that it has bitten off more than it can chew. This is also probably true of the citizenship issue as well, but more of that later.
LAYING A ROAD MAP FOR THE FIRST CDS
Laying a road map for the first CDS, General Rawat, Gurmeet Kanwal (former director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi) suggests the first item on the agenda “should be the formulation of integrated operational plans.
JAMMU AND KASHMIR: ‘FUNDAMENTAL DISAFFECTION' HAS NOT GONE AWAY
A convoy of three dozen Union ministers descended on the newlycreated Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir last week to promote development plans of the Centre.
