These are among a series of assessments that have pegged growth at low numbers pointing to a serious situation that some economists say bring India closer to stagflation. The government, aware of the situation, has reacted with a number of measures to jumpstart the economy. The consensus is that these measures will take time to show results Therefore, these economists says the slowdown is shorter and the economy will pick up. That is in line with the view of agencies like the IMF and other agencies.
2020 GROWTH FORECAST AT 5.8 %: IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Monday reduced its 2020 global growth forecasts due to sharper-than-expected slowdowns in India and other emerging markets, but said a US-China trade deal was another sign that trade and manufacturing activity may soon bottom out.
The IMF said global growth would reach 3.3 per cent in 2020, compared to 2.9 per cent in 2019, which was the slowest pace since the financial crisis a decade ago Growth will improve slightly to 3.4 per cent in 2021.
India saw a sharp, 1.2 percentage point cut to its 2020 growth forecast to 5.8 per cent, the IMF’s biggest markdown for any emerging market, because of the domestic credit crunch. Monetary and fiscal stimulus is expected to lift India’s growth rate back to 6.5 per cent in 2021, although this is still 0.9 percentage point lower than forecast in October.
Domestic issues to blame: Some in India have argued that the country’s current economic slowdown is largely due to sluggish global growth and trade. But, the IMF notes the downward revision in India’s growth prospects is more due to domestic issues — domestic demand has slowed down more sharply than expected amid stress in the nonbanking financial sector, a decline in credit growth and poor growth in rural incomes.
This story is from the NbN 27 January 2020 edition of News behind the News.
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This story is from the NbN 27 January 2020 edition of News behind the News.
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TROUBLED TIME FOR MODI
The students’ unrest, however, which is spreading like wildfire across the nation, and the protests by large sections of people against the citizenship law, have belied the BJP’s hopes of having a free run in the foreseeable future in presiding over the country’s destiny from panchayats to parliament, as Union home minister Amit Shah once said.
MUST-WIN FOR BJP IN DELHI POLLS
Having failed to perform satisfactorily in the Haryana, Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections, the BJP realizes that its rank and file will be hugely demoralized if it does not fare well in the forthcoming Delhi polls.
MILITARY MIGHT AT R-DAY PARADE
Anti-satellite weapon ‘Shakti’, lethal artillery gun ‘Dhanush’, and newly-inducted helicopters Apache and Chinook were among the key military assets showcased by India for the first time at the Republic Day parade on 26 January.
INDIA - PAKISTAN: DEALING WITH PAKISTAN'S AMBITIONS ON KASHMIR
Pakistan’s diplomatic offensive on Kashmir has gained some traction with the EU Parliament debating the issue along with the controversial Citizen’s (Amendment) Act (CAA).
EXPERT ANALYSES UNION BUDGET 2020-21: A MIXED BAG
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s second Budget presented three themes -- aspiring India, economic development, caring society. And it seeks to cater to the demand side of the economy by trying to put more money in the hands of individuals.
DELHI ELECTION: BJP HOPES TO GAIN FROM CAA INSTILLED POLARISATION
The anti-CAA protests took a violent turn as a 17-year-old teenager Thursday shot a Kashmiri protester near Jamia Millia Islamia University, Delhi.
CAA DEBATE IN EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: INDIA UNDER PRESSURE
Much to the relief of India, the European Parliament Wednesday decided to put off a vote on a resolution critical of India’s Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) to a session beginning on March 2. The move is being seen as linked to the upcoming India-EU Summit next month.
JAMMU AND KASHMIR: BJP IN A TIGHT CORNER
The government’s policies on Kashmir give the impression that it has bitten off more than it can chew. This is also probably true of the citizenship issue as well, but more of that later.
LAYING A ROAD MAP FOR THE FIRST CDS
Laying a road map for the first CDS, General Rawat, Gurmeet Kanwal (former director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi) suggests the first item on the agenda “should be the formulation of integrated operational plans.
JAMMU AND KASHMIR: ‘FUNDAMENTAL DISAFFECTION' HAS NOT GONE AWAY
A convoy of three dozen Union ministers descended on the newlycreated Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir last week to promote development plans of the Centre.
