Scouts Take Informed Risks On Latin Teenagers

Signing 16-year-old international free agents requires an extreme level of long-term projection.

 

- Ben Badler

In a perfect-world scenario, a 16-year-old might be ready to contribute at the major league level four years after signing. But only the most prodigous talents get to the big leagues at age 20, which for a player who signs at age 16 is his fifth pro season. In many cases, the window for players to get to the majors—if they get there at all—is six or seven years away, and that’s just the point when they get started.

In trying predict the futures of what 16-year-old kids in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela will be in 10 years, scouts are often placing their bets based in part on a player’s body type. And when it comes to Latin American teenagers, the differences in body types and how they can change over time can often be extreme.

When the Twins signed Miguel Sano for $3.1 million in 2009, he was 6-foot3, 190 pounds and ran above-average times in the 60-yard dash. Based on his body type, he didn’t figure to stay at shortstop long term, but he ended up looking more like an NFL defensive end who at one point pushed 300 pounds.

The best example in the 2017 class of a player who draws divergent opinions based on his body type is Ronny Mauricio, a 16-year-old Dominican shortstop who signed with the Mets for $2.1 million. The No. 3 international prospect, Mauricio is 6-foot-2, 165 pounds and a long, skinny switch-hitter with a high waist and all the indicators that point to a high physical upside.