Even as gold prices began falling in September 2020, Citicorp was predicting record highs by the end of 2020. On Tuesday, September 22, Bloomberg reported Citigroup was predicting “gold could hit a record before the year-end, aided in part by the risks surrounding the U.S. presidential election.” Uncertainty over the outcome and potential delays with the vote count could “be under-appreciated by precious metals markets,” said Citicorp analysts, including Aakash Doshi, in its quarterly commodities outlook.
Citigroup analysts forecast a $200 per ounce surge from levels of around $1,900, which implied $2,100 gold by December 31. Citigroup cited rising investor concern about the election, which took on added tension after the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and the race to replace her on the U.S. Supreme Court. The election “could be an extraordinary catalyst for gold flat price and volatility skew late in the fourth quarter, even though historically there is no clear pattern for gold trading or price volatility into and after U.S. elections,” Citi said. “That is one reason why we expect gold prices to hit fresh records before year-end.” In addition, Citi is positive on gold amid low-interest rates.
For reference, Citi’s report was written when the gold futures price traded at $1,894.20 an ounce on the COMEX (Gold Futures). The record high price for the most-active futures price was $2,089.20 per ounce on August 7.
THE U.S. MINT’S GOLD EAGLE SALES ROSE 383% IN 2020 VS. 2019
During the first eight months of 2020, 589,500 Troy ounces of Gold American Eagles were sold by the U.S. Mint versus only 122,000 ounces for the same eight months in 2019, a 383% increase. This was despite periodic work shutdowns this year due to the coronavirus and a complete cessation of production of the popular $5 tenth-ounce gold Eagles for three months. Production of the $5 gold Eagles finally resumed in July, with 35,000 of the smaller coins sold in July and another 30,000 sold in August.
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