5 Glittering Stocks for Samvat 2078
Indian Economy & Market|November 2021
Samvat 2077 has been exceptionally well for the equity market. However, Samvat 2078 will be little subdued but these five stocks will add spark to your portfolio.

Samvat 2077 saw one of the best returns for the equity market in last one decade. Indian equity market kept rising from last Diwali. Except for a brief period in February, May and June, there was almost a vertical rise in the Indian equity market. Frontline equity indices touched new life time highs with Nifty and Sensex surpassing 18000 and 60000 mark for the first time in history. It looks surprising that market run-up from pandemic lows of 7620 mark in March 2020 – amid lockdowns and other health challenges to current level.

It was not only the frontline indices; even the broader market saw a spectacular growth during Samvat 2077. While the Nifty 50 gained 38.9percent during Samvat 2077, it was small-cap index represented by Nifty 50 that made a killing and gained 81percent. Nifty Midcap index gained 64percent.

Equity Market Performance during Different Samvats

Even all sectoral indices also delivered positive returns, with top gainers being Metals, which more than doubled, even the Realty gained in triple digit while PSU Banks was up by 93percent. On the other hand, Pharma (+23percent), FMCG (+29percent) and Private Banks (+30percent) were underperformers as defensives took a breather. The theme of Samvat 2077 was high beta, cyclical and value.

Such performance was on back of huge FIIs flows in equities. Inflows during Samvat 2077 was the highest ever at ₹1.6 lakh crore. The optimism in the Indian equity market was due to benign global liquidity, containment of COVID-19 cases, significant pickup in the pace of vaccination, sharp recovery in corporate earnings and a market-friendly budget. Macroeconomic trends saw good recovery, with high-frequency indicators (GST collections, e-way bills, PMI readings, power & fuel demand) improving month-on-month. Exports have emerged as a growth engine with India reporting the highest ever export in a single quarter in the second quarter of FY22.

Performance of Major Indices In Samvat 2077

The country witnessed the third consecutive year of normal monsoon which is also likely to aid rural demand, and with the government balance sheet in good stead, we expect the government to press the fiscal pedal to drive growth over the next 6-12 months. Corporate India too surmounted the challenges posed by Covid with unprecedented cost containment measures with parallel improvement in balance sheet as well as cash-flows.

Not all the Samvats has been great for equity investors, however, we have witnessed a positive returns in most of the years. It is especially true for large-cap index such as Nifty 50. Out of last ten years we have seen negative results only once. Nevertheless, in case of mid-cap and small-cap we have seen negative return three times out of last ten years. Nonetheless, the subsequent returns after these negative returns are more than enough to compensate the negative returns. For example, in Samvat 2069 (2012-13) we saw a negative return from both mid-cap and small-cap index, however, in the following year both of them gained in excess of 50percent.

The following table shows last ten year returns from different indices during different Samvats.

Going ahead, there are some negatives emerging in the horizon like commodity price inflation, supply chain issues, normalcy of monetary stimulus and rise in interest rate. The result so far by India Inc., for the quarter ending Q2FY22 shows some pain on margin front due to rise in commodity prices and impact on topline due to supply chain issue. Therefore, we cannot expect similar returns in Samvat 2078.

Most sectors and stocks are discounting the best in economic recovery in their prices. Hence, it becomes very tricky to select stocks that will outperform markets going ahead.

In the following pages, however, we are giving you stocks where street is yet to give value to their future potential.

ITD Cementation India Ltd.

• Order book as at Q1FY22 stands12040 crore

• A dominant player in urban infra space

• Parent Company is leader in Maritime Structures

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