Food inflation plays a central role in headline inflation, but is also an important metric to track in terms of access to sufficient and sufficiently nutritious food for households. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy’s (BFAP) ‘Baseline Agricultural Outlook 2020 to 2029’ explores current and possible future trends in food inflation and their potential impact on household food security from an affordability perspective.
TRENDS IN FOOD INFLATION
For the past couple of years, BFAP has included a food inflation forecast in its baseline report that is in line with the statistical properties of the inflationary series in question (be it food inflation or one of its sub-categories). This has been done with relative confidence, as most inflationary series exhibit a degree of inertia that can be drawn on to forecast trends. This inertia is predominantly supported by demand-side trends that drive the longer-term trajectory of the series. Supply-side issues also play a role, but manifest more as shorter-term shocks away from longer-term demand-side trends.
As the country emerges from the strict COVID- 19 lockdown measures, however, it is unclear how these supply and demand dynamics will show up in metrics such as food inflation. In terms of demand, South African consumers have been under pressure from before the lockdown period, thus the restrictions intensified the economic pressures already evident from early 2019. The supply side, in turn, also experienced unprecedented shocks, such as a significant depreciation of the rand-US dollar exchange rate.
This story is from the September 18, 2020 edition of Farmer's Weekly.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the September 18, 2020 edition of Farmer's Weekly.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
R17m donation of tractors, bulls and infrastructure
Small-scale farmers in KwaZulu-Natal have been given an opportunity to grow into sustainable commercial businesses through a holistic integrated programme that will provide mechanisation, infrastructure and sector expertise.
Top dairy products revealed
Lactalis South Africa has won the South African Dairy Product of the Year Award for six of the past eight years. This year it won with a 10-month-old Gouda made especially for Woolworths.
Poor waste management highlighted on Earth Day
Most of South Africa’s waste ends up in dumps, if not strewn across open spaces or littering streams and oceans.
Kenya hosts soil health summit
The health of African soil was discussed at length by gathering of experts, writes Jeff Kapembwa.
Report shows the impact that heat has on agricultural workers
The UN’s International Labour Organisation (ILO) recently released a report showing the impact of climate change on the health of workers.
Factors to bear in mind when dipping livestock
It is important to consider the intervals at which you dip livestock in relation to the specific season in which ticks become more or less, writes Shane Brody.
Good outlook for pome fruit
Varieties of fruit could be the key in growing the pome fruit sector, writes Glenneis Kriel.
Building a sustainable agriculture sector in the Western Cape
Technology, research, financial mentorship and more will be required, writes Marinda Louw Coetzee.
PwC research shows food crisis impact
A new report details how the looming food crisis will affect Africa, writes Jyothi Laldas.
Braaied meat and soft-boiled egg Thai salad
This salad with maize, peanuts and eggs will turn leftover braai meat into a completely different meal. Recipe and photo: South African Poultry Association.