India’s economy is expected to shrink in FY21. Most economists predict India will enter recession by September. What is your assessment?
Not just India, but the world economy will shrink in FY21. However, most analysts estimate the fallout in India will not be as severe as in other countries. In April, the International Monetary Fund had stated the Indian economy will grow in FY21, albeit at a slower pace. Even high-frequency indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), showed improvement between April and May. June might be better, given that the economy is opening up. If India does see a full-year recession, it is not likely to be very deep, and we should see the economy bounce back in the next fiscal.
In which quarter do you expect India’s GDP to start growing instead of shrinking?
We have started opening up the economy over the past month. As more data starts flowing in, we will be able to make an informed assessment of growth prospects. Early indications from PMI data suggest contraction in manufacturing and services may have bottomed out. The PMI services index fell to 5.4 in April, and touched 12.6 in May. Business optimism for the year ahead remains positive, as recorded by these surveys. In my opinion, we should see growth starting to pick up from the second half of this fiscal.
What has stopped the government from taking demand-stoking measures instead of working on the supply side?
This story is from the June 28, 2020 edition of Business Today.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber ? Sign In
This story is from the June 28, 2020 edition of Business Today.
Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.
Already a subscriber? Sign In
The Dark Side Of Gold Loans
There Has Been A Sharp Rise In Gold Loans In Recent Years. But There Is A Seedier Side To This, As Is Evident From The Red Flag The RBI Raised Recently. Will The Regulator's Move Protect Customers?
All That Glitters
The price of gold has been rising unabated. It has soared to more than 73,000 per 10 gm in 2024 from *31,000 in early 2018. Is the rally sustainable or is this a bubble?
"Hire for attitude, not ability"
Thryve Digital is a player in the healthcare technology sector delivering next-generation solutions
Road Warrior
For Khalid Wani, Senior Director of Sales at Western Digital India, life is much more than just the corner office. Biking across the world is one way he derives meaning for his life
WIDENING THE POOL
THERE HAS BEEN A JUMP IN INDIVIDUALS INVESTING DIRECTLY IN THE STOCK MARKETS, BUT MUMBAI AND AHMEDABAD STILL ACCOUNT FOR THE LION'S SHARE. THERE DEFINITELY IS SCOPE FOR IMPROVEMENT IN TERMS OF PENETRATION LEVELS ACROSS THE COUNTRY
CRISIS IN THE CLOUDS
INDIAN AVIATION IS IN CRISIS. AIRLINES ARE GRAPPLING WITH FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS, CREW SHORTAGES, AND COMPLAINTS ABOUT POOR SERVICE, ARE BLEEDING DUE TO RISING COSTS WILL THE FASTEST-GROWING AVIATION MARKET RECOVER?
"India should start privatising public sector banks"
Arvind Panagariya, Chairman of the 16th Finance Commission, on growth, inequality, jobs, the banking sector, and more
"I LET MY WORK DO THE TALKING"
Megha Engineering & Infrastructures MD P.V. Krishna Reddy on being low profile, the infra opportunity and much more
"Core of insurance lies in long-term security"
Vibha Padalkar, MD & CEO of HDFC Life, on the insurance provider's performance, surrender charges, and future innovations
Distress in the Books
Bandhan Bank, the brainchild of Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, has made the journey from an MFI to a bank, but with many hurdles. Now with his resignation as MD & CEO, is the lender staring at more uncertainty?