Smaller Countries Learn to Hedge Their Bets in the Age of Trump

This is a world in which no one can 'price' peace any more.

- Gillian Tett

In normal circumstances, the Cook Islands attracts attention from only honeymooners, green activists and Kiwi diplomats. That is because the remote Pacific country has a security deal with New Zealand (and, by extension, Western allies) – and stunning palm-lined beaches threatened by rising seas.

But we do not live in normal times; US President Donald Trump is smashing the post-war geopolitical order. And last week, Cook Islands Premier Mark Brown embarked on an investment deal with China.

The New Zealand government loudly howled in horror, fearing retaliation from Mr Trump. But the Cook Islanders seem undeterred. And these specks of land in the Pacific have become a potent symbol of how the geopolitical sands are shifting.

As the Trump hurricane sweeps around the globe, two key themes are becoming clear: America's leaders are determined to bolster US growth at any cost, be that environmental, social or diplomatic; and they are equally determined to use hegemonic power, jumbling military, financial, tech and trade interests together.

As a result, other nations face three choices: become a vassal of America's imperial power; oppose it by allying with US rivals such as China and Russia; or copy the Cook Islands and try to hedge your bets.