Singapore's Manufacturing Growth Quickens in June

Rise driven by front-loading, but economists expect 'payback' when Trump's tariffs kick in

- Sheila Chiang

Singapore's manufacturing output picked up pace in June, topping forecasts, but production is expected to slow in the second half of 2025 as US tariffs kick in.

Output rose 8 per cent year on year, after a revised 3.6 per cent increase in May, data from the Economic Development Board on July 25 showed.

The figure surpassed a 7.1 per cent growth forecast by economists in a Bloomberg poll.

Excluding the more volatile biomedical industry, production increased 8.2 per cent.

On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, manufacturing output in June was largely unchanged from the previous month. Excluding biomedical manufacturing, output declined 0.8 per cent.

Since US President Donald Trump first announced global "reciprocal" tariffs on April 2, businesses have been front-loading orders - importing goods early to avoid the hefty incoming levies that will kick in on Aug 1.

Economists expect "payback" from this front-loading to hit in the second half of 2025, along with the ripple effects of reciprocal tariffs.

The pain to exports, and thus manufacturing, will be greater if Mr Trump goes ahead and slaps sectoral tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals - sectors important to Singapore's economy.

DBS Bank senior economist Chua Han Teng noted that June's output growth was the fastest since November 2024, but attributed this partly to base effects.