My take on the rand and South Africa’s future - Rayhaan Survé

ON THURSDAY, 24 July, an executive asked me whether they should hedge the Rand below R18 to the dollar. This was my short response:

- RAYHAAN SURVE

Hi XXX,

My thoughts are that USD/ZAR is at peak for the year and we will see weakening from here [due to] USA tariff effects plus latest policy on ANC leaders. Based on that, I think it’s worth us hedging against a weaker rand over next 6-12 months. Speculative but I don’t see a reason for current level beyond a weaker dollar.

My best

The above is months of news packed into three sentences that reflect more than just the exchange rate.

So let’s unpack.

South Africa's political scene

The first cracks in the Government of National Unity (GNU) emerged at the beginning of the year, as tensions within the parties escalated while attempting to agree on the budget.

The GNU is South Africa's first multiparty alliance, created in response to the African National Congress (ANC) losing its majority in 2024.

The GNU is still primarily made up of the ANC and its main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA).

Amidst the disagreements over the budget, the DA showed its colours by threatening to prevent budget approval unless it received concessions on the party's other agenda items.

The ANC, in turn, showed the public that they are willing to work with parties outside of the GNU, namely the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) and Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), to achieve the ANC's ambitions. The Rand did not appreciate either of these plays.

Then we had the unauthorised travel by former Deputy Minister Andrew Whitfield, who embarked on a state visit knowingly against the President's instructions.

To Mr President, an open-and-shut case which resulted in immediate termination in July 2025. The DA was outraged.

Then, the Minister of Police, Senzo Mchunu, was implicated in a corruption scandal involving the most dangerous gangs in South Africa. The president took his time to come to a decisive action, and only a week later, suspended the former minister pending investigation.