IMF outlook: The good, the bad and the unsaid

The Fund's April 2025 'World Economic Outlook' is both reassuring and disturbing. It reflects the uncertain times through which the world is passing—and calls for reflection

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Two takeaways stand out from the latest iteration of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) World Economic Outlook (WEO), issued for April 2025. One is reassuring and the other, disturbing. The biggest consolation is that, contrary to widespread fears, the global economy is nowhere near a recession. According to the Fund, "Despite the slowdown, global growth remains well above recession levels." World output is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2025. Sure, this is half a percentage point less than its January 2025 rate projection and it expects this weakness to persist into 2026, when growth is expected to be 3%, three-tenths of a percentage point less than its January forecast. However, we're not headed for recession territory, defined as two consecutive quarters of a drop in output. Global trade has also been quite resilient so far, thanks partly to the ingenuity of businesses that were able to re-route trade flows. But, as the IMF warns, this may become increasingly difficult from here on. As a result, global trade growth is expected to dip