INVITE IMMIGRANTS, INDIA

SOUNDS STRANGE, the title, even contrarian. The world’s biggest country, with a population of 1,400 million and growing: conventional wisdom will say, “keep out immigrants – we do not need more people.” Yet, there are good reasons to think otherwise.

- Kiran Karnik

An earlier column (Dashing Deshis and Foreigner Phobia, BW Businessworld March 26, 2023) had some examples of PIOs who achieved great success abroad. It triggered much comment and feedback, especially its conclusion suggesting India should encourage immigration. Shocking for many who feel that India’s problem is growing numbers, and the answer – and path to prosperity – is population control.

In fact, India’s total fertility rate (TFR) is already below 2.1, which is the “replacement rate”. This means that the country has crossed the threshold and growth is now based only on past momentum. One study indicates that the population will peak in 2048, at 1.6 billion. After that, it will begin to decline, going down to 1.09 billion by 2100: almost exactly what it was at the start of this millennium!

In India, overall statistics reveal a great deal, but often hide much (for political correctness, I consciously avoid the cliched simile). A granular break-up of TFR indicates that the all-India figure hides wide diversity between states. For example, while 23 states were at or below the crucial TFR 2.1 level in 2021 (Kerala reached this benchmark as far back as 1988), Bihar is expected to reach this milestone only in 2039. Clearly, in some states, there is yet much work to be done.