Global CO2 emissions to hit another record in 2025: Study

Breaching of 1.5 deg C limit for global warming is now unavoidable, says expert

- David Fogarty

For the UN’s top climate science body, 2025 is a key year. This is the year global greenhouse gas emissions must start to fall and then decline rapidly to limit the severity of climate change.

Instead, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning planet-warming fossil fuels are predicted to reach another record in 2025, a study released on Nov 13 found.

Humanity is hurtling towards the key Paris Agreement temperature limit of 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels. And it will do so with just four more years of CO2 emissions at current levels, the authors said in their report, which was released during the ongoing COP30 UN climate talks in Belem, Brazil.

The study by the Global Carbon Project (GCP), an international scientific consortium, predicts CO2 emissions from burning coal, oil and gas will hit 38.1 billion tonnes in 2025, up 1.1 per cent from 2024. Emissions also increased 1.1 per cent in 2024 versus 2023.

Emissions are projected to grow in the US and the European Union, reversing their long-term declining trends. But emissions growth is expected to slow in China and India on lower demand for polluting coal, the world’s top source of CO2.

“Global fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been persistently hovering around 1 per cent (growth) per year for the last few years,” said GCP executive director Pep Canadell.

The GCP analysis, in its 20th year, is produced by more than 100 scientists from dozens of scientific institutes across the globe.

“However, we do find clear signs of slower growth from some of the major emitters, including China, and real declines in many other medium to small emitters. It is now very possible that over the next few years (three to five years), we will reach global peak emissions,” Dr Canadell told The Straits Times.