Volatile World

Nowhere is the tension between dependency and autonomy clearer than in technology. Semiconductors are the brains of the digital age. India has long been absent from the scene, but projects like Micron’s $2.7 billion ATMP facility in Gujarat and Applied Materials’ $400 million R&D centre in Bengaluru indicate a promising foothold. Nevertheless, Trump’s America First instincts may cap India’s role at assembly only, keeping high-value fabrication at home

- NARAIN BATRA

When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, many expected a revival of his emblematic economic nationalism.

Few, however, foresaw his outrageous move to impose a $100,000 H-IB visa fee. For three decades, the H-1B programme had been the conduit of America’s technology industry, allowing firms to hire engineers, programmers, and researchers from abroad, majority of them from India.

By setting the fee at a level that makes the programme extortionate, Trump struck at the heart of the U.S.-India innovation marketplace. The immediate reaction was shock. Silicon Valley warned of talent shortages. Infosys and Wipro shares fell, while students in Indian tech institutions suddenly saw their American dreams blurred.

Nevertheless, the visa shock seems more than an immigration reform. It is a metaphor for a new geopolitical era, a world where technology, trade, and people could be instrumentalized. A world where the United States is both indispensable partner and a ruthless unpredictable power, where India must navigate volatility without compromising its strategic autonomy.

Trump’s protectionism narrows India’s choices, but also creates opportunities. By turning disruption into renewal, India can emerge as a new pole of global innovation, shaping rather than merely adapting to the twenty-first-century techno-(dis)order.

Trump’ tariffs go beyond trade balances. During his first term, India lost preferential access under the Generalized System of Preferences, costing exporters hundreds of millions annually. Now Trump has imposed a 50 per cent tariff since India continues to buy discounted Russian oil. This is economic coercion cloaked as international trade policy. It reflects a world of strong-arm interdependence, where commerce becomes provisional. Beijing punishes Australia by blocking coal imports, Brussels imposes carbon border taxes, and Washington links tariffs to geopolitical alignment, for example.