It is not hard to see what caused this earthquake

THE penny dropped for one Kent County Council election candidate on May 1 when three young men turned up at a polling station in Mid Kent and, clearly unaccustomed to such surroundings, asked where they could “vote for Nigel Farage”.

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Something was going on and he did not know what it was - but it did not smell good for his party.

Most established political parties rely on polling survey data, past voting patterns and canvass returns. Activists concentrate on the known, core vote and ignore the households where people don't bother with the polling stations. They attempt to persuade the undecided and shove as many leaflets through doors as time, money, and willing hands will allow.

Reform UK's success all comes down to the unseen congregation who, in some divisions, raised the turnout figure above projections.

The chances are many were not even spoken to by the mainstream parties.

While the voting surge in favour of Mr Farage’s team may have been something of a surprise to the chap mentioned earlier, it was not to the Tories.