Deflation a bigger threat than inflation

Investors, consumers and policymakers may justifiably fear the spectre of tariff-fuelled inflation later this year and beyond, but it is powerful global disinflationary forces that are weighing most heavily right now.

- JAMIE MCGEEVER

The OECD said last week that it expects collective annual headline inflation in G20 economies to moderate to 3.6% this year from 6.2% last year, cooling further in 2026 to 3.2%.

But the United States is an “important exception”, the OECD argues, and it sees inflation there rising to just under 4% later this year and remaining above target in 2026.