Asean regains footing despite setbacks

It is timely to take stock of last month’s Asean-related summits as the first year of US President Donald Trump's second term comes to a close. A key question is whether “Asean centrality” — the notion that the bloc anchors regional diplomacy and convenes leaders to promote peace and prosperity — still holds sway.

- Thitinan Pongsudhirak

While Asean has suffered setbacks amid ongoing adversity, there are signs that its longstanding status as a glass “half-empty and leaking” since 2012, when Cambodia's chairmanship blocked a joint statement on the South China Sea, may again be shifting toward “half-full”.

The 2025 summit season, held amid intensifying US-China rivalry and Mr Trump's blatant economic nationalism, allowed the ten-member grouping to regain measured traction and initiative. Asean not only weathered Mr Trump's threats and pressure but also admitted Timor-Leste as its 11th member, reaffirmed the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) on Myanmar’s civil war and looming sham elections, and deepened the China-Asean Free Trade Agreement. Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney also joined the proceedings, reflecting a broader effort by middle powers to build coalitions with Asean beyond the US-China structural binary.

In the event, Asean’s most recent summitry opened as a contest between Asean centrality and Mr Trump's transactional approach. Mr Trump conditioned his attendance on the signing of a peace agreement between Thailand and Cambodia, part of an effort to burnish his credentials for a Nobel Peace Prize. As Asean chair, Malaysia needed Mr Trump to show up because he was the most powerful among the participating leaders.

Yet Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul also had pragmatic incentives to let Mr Trump preside over the signing, since both sought to finalise trade and tariff deals with Washington. Ultimately, the two leaders inked a “peace accord” with Mr Trump and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim witnessing the ceremony.