The Shinawatras are back but the path ahead is strewn with minefields

Thai PM Paetongtarn's rise signals the Shinawatra clan's power consolidation, but questions abound on the continued relevance of Thaksin's old playbook.

- Bhavan Jaipragas

The month of August delivered fresh twists in Thailand's endless loop of political instability, serving as a reminder, if anyone needed one, of the kingdom's deep dysfunctions.

Yet, it may be remembered fondly by billionaire former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his powerful, polarising family.

Although their surrogate, Mr Srettha Thavisin, was abruptly removed from the premiership by an Aug 14 court ruling, he was swiftly replaced by Thaksin's youngest daughter, 38-year-old Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

If Mr Srettha had ever been an obstacle to Thaksin's behind-the-scenes power plays, that hurdle has now been cleared.

Almost immediately, the patriarch, now 75, seemed to intensify his projection of power.

Granted, there is a widespread perception he had already been doing so since his dramatic return from self-imposed exile in August 2023, under unstated conditions that allowed him to serve just six months of an eight-year jail sentence, all in a hospital's luxury wing.

But commentators have noted a renewed exuberance in the former leader as he steps to the forefront of politics following Ms Paetongtarn's appointment.

Veteran Thai journalist and commentator Kavi Chongkittavorn suggested the policeman turned telecoms tycoon turned politician seemed to treat his daughter's rise as “a personal trophy of the Shinawatras rather than a victory for the Thai people".

Much attention has since centred on Thaksin's Aug 22 dinner speech to an ultra-elite audience, where he outlined his "Vision for Thailand 2024" widely regarded as a preview of Ms Paetongtarn's likely policy platform.

Some proposals echoed Mr Srettha's agenda, but the speech largely revisited the populist "Thaksinomics" blueprint that spurred growth under three Shinawatra governments, won the loyalty of the rural poor, and provoked the ire of the military-backed royalist establishment.