CHINA FISHES IN MYANMAR'S WIDE FAULTLINES

By maintaining relations with Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations, China exerts influence on whoever rules the country. Its strategic interest lies in overland access to the Indian Ocean

- PRADIP PHANJOUBAM

The Myanmar civil war, triggered by the February 2021 military coup, has crossed the four-year mark. There is, however, still no sign of a respite from the anarchy the country is in. Adding to the country's misery now is the devastating earthquake last week, the death toll from which has already exceeded 2,000 and is expected to climb much higher.

The devastation from the quake will understandably divert international attention from the civil war for now. But in the days ahead, the tragedy will probably accentuate the acute divisions this country of multiple ethnicities is cursed with, when it becomes evident that the government does not have the means to mitigate public misery from the calamity.

The country's economy is already stressed to breaking point by the civil war, and therefore it will have to depend on the generosity of the international community to overcome the new challenge. It remains to be seen if politics colours the response and how many countries get to set aside their disapproval of the junta to extend humanitarian aid.

One scenario is almost predictable. China will be among the most indiscriminate in offering help to the junta, not for any particular liking of the latter, as often alleged, but to ensure its deep interest and matching investments in the country are not upset. It is for this that China has always made it very clear that it will ally with anybody in power in Myanmar. Indeed, when Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy or NLD was in power after the 2015 election, China had also rolled out the red carpet for Suu Kyi.