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In Wales, Plaid Cymru senses its moment has finally come
The Guardian Weekly
|October 31, 2025
The skies above Caerphilly may have matched the turquoise of Reform UK but it was the green and yellow of Plaid Cymru that dominated the valleys town last Friday morning.
The Welsh nationalists trounced their opponents with a hefty 47% of the vote in a Senedd byelection that was framed by many as a potential “canary in the coalmine” moment for Welsh politics.
Reform failed to live up to the hype and came second with 36%, and Labour’s vote - in a constituency it has held for decades - collapsed to a paltry 11%.
It had been expected to be closer between Plaid and Reform, pegged as a 50/50 two-horse race. Both parties threw their weight behind the contest, with their respective leaders, Rhun ap Iorwerth and Nigel Farage, joining the campaign trail earlier this month. Farage pledged to “throw everything” to secure a win.
The Welsh nationalists’ triumph was being put down in part to their clear, passionate call for the people of south Wales to reject Reform UK’s stance on immigration. It leaves Labour, which runs the Welsh government, facing the prospect of a meltdown at next year’s full Senedd elections.
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