America's s&p 500 is up by 5%. Since reaching its peak in October, the trade-weighted value of the dollar has fallen by 7%, a sign that fear about the global economy is ebbing. Even bitcoin has had a good year.
Not long ago it felt as though a global recession was nailed on. Now optimism is re-emerging.
"Hello lower gas prices, bye-bye recession," cheered analysts at JPMorgan Chase, a bank, on January 18th, in a report on the euro zone. Nomura, a bank, has revised its forecast of Britain's forthcoming recession "to something less pernicious [than] what we originally expected". Citigroup, another bank, said that "the probability of a full-blown global recession, in which growth in many countries turns down in tandem, is now roughly 30% [in contrast with] the 50% assessment that we maintained through the second half of last year."
These are crumbs: the world economy is weaker than at any point since the lockdowns of 2020. But investors will eat anything.
Forecasters are in part responding to real-time economic data. Despite talk of a global recession since at least last February, when Russia invaded Ukraine, these data have held up better than expected. Consider a weekly estimate of gdp from the oecd, a group of mostly rich countries which account for about 60% of global output. It is hardly booming, but in midJanuary few countries were struggling (see chart 1). Widely watched "purchasingmanager index" measures of global output rose slightly in January, consistent with gdp growth of about 2%.
この記事は Mint Mumbai の January 26, 2023 版に掲載されています。
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この記事は Mint Mumbai の January 26, 2023 版に掲載されています。
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