In the Friend Zone

This year, India will look to consolidate its position as an island of calm in a world of storms. It will need all the agility it can muster, as mediation becomes trickier in a second Trump era

- Pramit Pal Chaudhuri

The goal of the Narendra Modi government in the coming year will be to position India as an island of calm in a world of storms. The destination for companies seeking to set up a secure supply chain. A country with a capital where politics is boringly predictable. A nation with a military that is unlikely to spar with its neighbours.

One measure of progress is that Modi is able to host summits with Russia's Vladimir Putin, China's Xi Jinping and the US's Donald Trump without ruffling feathers. When the PM says his third term is about the idea of the Vishwabandhu, or universal friend, it is more than a slogan. There is thought behind the phrase.

The world is likely to fight less but squabble more in 2025. Ukraine is slow-transitioning to a postconflict state. Neither side seems to be aiming for a decisive win; a peace conference with Kyiv and Moscow is on the horizon; and Donald Trump could prove to be the dove in shining armour.

Nothing will happen in a hurry. Wars of stalemates can take months to wind down. West Asia is more of a muddle. With Gaza flattened and the collapse of Iran's informal Shia empire, the question is what the ascendant Qatar-Turkey axis has in mind. So far, the new axis has preached peace on earth and goodwill to all men (except Kurds). There is something for diplomacy to work with here, if Trump's anti-Ayatollah sentiment doesn't boil over.