Turmoil in Tehran and its geopolitical aftershocks

The crisis in Iran is a stress test for West Asia. New Delhi must balance its cautious neutrality with pragmatic engagement, prioritising stability and access over alignment

- Ausaf Sayeed

Iran once again stands at the epicentre of a geopolitical storm, navigating what may be its most perilous convergence of crises since the 1979 revolution.

The Islamic Republic is no longer merely managing dissent—it faces a systemic uprising fuelled by economic suffocation and the erosion of its strategic deterrence. Unlike the reformist movement of 2009 or the civil liberties protests of 2022, the current wave of unrest, which began on December 28, 2025, is an existential outcry born of collapsing living standards under the strain of US led sanctions.

With inflation soaring to nearly 50% and food prices spiking, the rial has lost about half its value since early 2025. This hyperinflation has gutted the middle class, merging economic desperation with overt demands to overthrow the system. The unrest has quickly spread to more than 300 locations across all 31 provinces, exposing a fatal rupture in the social contract. Notably, the regime's traditional base—the bazaaris and the conservative working class — has aligned with restive ethnic peripheries, forming a unified front the clerical establishment has rarely confronted.

The State’s response follows a familiar pattern of mass arrests, internet blackouts, and lethal force. Yet repression today carries higher stakes. The population is younger, less ideological, and openly sceptical of leaders who invoke foreign conspiracies while daily survival grows increasingly precarious.