Crisis = Opportunity

Political uncertainty has increasingly taken hold of narratives on the country, with Fitch Ratings and Japanese investment bank Nomura being just the latest to warn that the current crisis of governance could hit the Philippines’ investment and overall economic growth hopes.

- WILFREDO G. REYES

And when was the last time that mutually antagonistic business and labor groups agreed on a particular issue, after major industry chambers and the Church issued their respective statements? I do not recall, but this cannot be “good” (depends on whether one regards the current situation as a glass half-empty or half-full, I guess).

Still, this governance crisis has not yet developed into a political crisis, much less into an economic crisis (despite the peso falling to a new record-low P59.13 to the dollar at the end of Oct. 28 trades, partly due to governance worries’). The central bank’s third-quarter Business Expectations Survey, conducted from July 4 to Aug. 17, showed that overall sentiment has been generally optimistic, although the quarterly reading for the “next 12 months” has been on a general decline since the first quarter of 2024 to 48.1% of late”.

The view from the ground bears such cautious optimism. For instance, nearly half of German investors in the Philippines who were polled for the Sept. 29 to Oct. 17 AHK World Business Outlook Fall 2025 Survey that was conducted for the German-Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry said they still expect business conditions to remain stable in the next 12 months, even as they cited the need for “[a] stable, predictable and accountable governance environment... [to] further deepen investor confidence, attract high-quality long-term investments, and strengthen the Philippines’ position as a competitive and reliable partner in the region.”*

MINDSET

Optimist that I am, I am always reminded of the Chinese character for “crisis,” consisting of the character for “danger” (wei) on the left and “crucial/turning point” (ji on the right — but which in the West is translated, somewhat erroneously, to “opportunity”). But since Northeast Asian reading convention runs from right to left, one would read the character for “crucial/turning point” /“opportunity” first.