The company has been hard to evaluate for a while because it is due for a complicated corporate restructuring into six separate companies and also the commodity cycle for industrial metals has been in a bearish trend.
Indeed, the consolidated business is estimated to see an 8-9 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) decrease in the January-March quarter (Q4) Ebitda (about 0.7 per cent down quarter-on-quarter or Q-o-Q) due to low prices across most metals and also lower volumes in oil and gas business.
But, the CLSA upgrade is based on an assumption that the group can benefit as the commodity cycle bottoms out and moves into an upcycle. The company is also trying to move past its debt overhang, and increase capacity and profitability across segments through ongoing capex.
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