The post-June 4 challenges

Both majority and coalition govts will have to rule by consensus henceforth

- R JAGANNATHAN

No matter who wins the Lok Sabha elections on June 4, the challenges the next government faces will be daunting. And no matter whether the government is a full-blown coalition or one led by a party with a majority of its own, these challenges will not be met without a consensus. The big politico-economic challenges cannot be overcome by parliamentary majorities alone.

Three challenges will come to the fore a year or two after the new government takes over. And there is always that perennial one -jobs. The first challenge will be the 2021 census, which has been enormously delayed due to Covid.

Suspicion that the census may be used for both the parliamentary delimitation exercise, and get linked to any future demands for a National Register of Citizens (NRC) will lead to "secular" posturing. It could also trigger north-south tensions over future Lok Sabha seats and relative tax shares.

Next, there is the women's reservation Bill, which cannot be implemented without expanding the total number of Lok Sabha seats. The Narendra Modi government, while passing the law, wisely chose to defer its implementation to the next term-i.e., after delimitation and expansion of the Lok Sabha.

The next census is going to be a political dynamite, and will need careful handling, both in its implementation, and in dealing with its wider fallout. So, at the very least, the government will have to announce in advance that its results will not lead to any covert implementation of the NRC. But even if the minorities are reassured on this score, the results of the census will decide how many seats any particular state will get. It would be a travesty if the populous Hindi belt is denied a fair increase in seats. On the other hand, it would be a political cop-out if the only consensus is to kick the can down the road, and freeze the Lok Sabha representation at current levels.