SA economy not (yet?) in a recession

While the country narrowly missed a recession in the fourth quarter of 2023, the agriculture sector, although hampered by load-shedding, among other factors, has shown limited growth. 

- Dr Koos Coetzee

The South African economy barely missed going into a recession in the fourth quarter of 2023. Economists define a recession as two or more quarters of negative growth. According to Stats SA, the economy grew by 0,1% in the fourth quarter after the 0,2% negative growth recorded in the third quarter of 2023. The growth figures quoted by Stats SA are calculated by comparing the seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) in a quarter with the previous quarter and then converting it into an annual figure. This method overemphasises change in GDP growth. Fortunately, Stats SA also publishes GDP growth figures based on a comparison of the GDP in a quarter with the same quarter in the previous year. According to this comparison, the economy grew in real terms by 1,2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 and by 0,6% in 2023. Growth rates in industry value-added and GDP in 2023 are shown in the table.

It paints a bleak picture for the economy, especially in terms of the primary industries. In spite of the congestion at the export harbours, the mining sector still managed to grow in the third quarter of 2023.

AGRICULTURE IN CRISIS