Post-Afghanistan Geopolitical Potpourri

In its desire to move away from the Middle East theatre, which includes Afghanistan, and refocus on the Indo-Pacific, the US may have dug a hole of instability in the heart of Asia

- LT Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd)

An aggressive China, a regressive US, a vacillating Russia, an overenthusiastic Pakistan, a ‘wait-and-watch India and a largely stumped world characterize the international geopolitical environment after the return of the Taliban in its new avatar in Afghanistan. This juncture also coincides with what could be perceived as the tapering phase of the coronavirus pandemic that had its own unique geopolitical impact on the world. In its desire to move away from the Middle East theatre that includes Afghanistan, refocus on the Indo-Pacific and rebuild its preparedness to contest the rise of China, the US may well have dug a hole of instability in the heart of Asia. This may continue to trouble it for longer than we can imagine. World order in the making in 2020 still had at its center the strong US awaiting transition to a new region of focus to meet future challenges. The difference in 2021 is that the combination of the pandemic, the mishandling of the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and political and military leadership with a diminished image create a perception of a superpower on the decline. The US has to shake itself out of this perception to enable it to handle the effects of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. It has also to ready itself to simultaneously meet the threats in the Indo-Pacific as well as those of the Middle East and Afghanistan. There is no scope for exclusive focus on a region; by virtue of being a superpower, the US must retain the capability to respond to and calibrate the situations both in the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East, plus the Af-Pak region.