Several members of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) – a sub-committee of Sage – told The Independent they were concerned by the “knock-on effect” of the criticism they have received in recent weeks for their modelling of the Omicron wave.
Fellow scientists and MPs have accused the advisers of bouncing the UK into repeated lockdowns and creating a “climate of manipulated fear”. SPI-M members fear such attacks will weaken trust in the modelling and hinder decision-making in the face of dangerous new Covid variants or future pandemics.
Professor John Edmunds, a SPI-M member, said there has been both “wilful misinterpretation” and a “genuine misunderstanding” of the group’s recent modelling, which did not predict what would happen over winter, but instead provided a variety of scenarios for ministers to review, ranging from the best to the worst.
This explains why one of the scenarios showed that 6,000 people could die a day, with tens of thousands of daily hospitalisations, the experts said. “The newspapers tend to emphasise the worst-case scenario, so that’s the stuff that gets reported,” said Prof Edmunds.
Others scenarios showed up to 400 deaths a day and just under 3,000 daily hospitalisations if restrictions weren’t imposed – a projection which has come close to materialising over winter.
In light of the modelling, and despite calls from Sage for the reintroduction of “more stringent measures” in mid-December, the government opted to stick with its plan B restrictions – a decision that supporters feel has since been vindicated, prompting many to accuse the SPI-M experts of getting it wrong.
ãã®èšäºã¯ The Independent ã® January 24, 2022 çã«æ²èŒãããŠããŸãã
7 æ¥éã® Magzter GOLD ç¡æãã©ã€ã¢ã«ãéå§ããŠãäœåãã®å³éžããããã¬ãã¢ã ã¹ããŒãªãŒã8,500 以äžã®éèªãæ°èã«ã¢ã¯ã»ã¹ããŠãã ããã
ãã§ã«è³Œèªè ã§ã ?  ãµã€ã³ã€ã³
ãã®èšäºã¯ The Independent ã® January 24, 2022 çã«æ²èŒãããŠããŸãã
7 æ¥éã® Magzter GOLD ç¡æãã©ã€ã¢ã«ãéå§ããŠãäœåãã®å³éžããããã¬ãã¢ã ã¹ããŒãªãŒã8,500 以äžã®éèªãæ°èã«ã¢ã¯ã»ã¹ããŠãã ããã
ãã§ã«è³Œèªè ã§ã? ãµã€ã³ã€ã³
A game of two fly-halves
Bath and Northants will clash in Premiership decider today
Alcaraz slogs it out to beat Sinner in four-hour epic
Young Spaniard will meet Zverev in French Open final
How the new Steve Jobs used AI to amass $100bn
Jen-hsun Huang - founder and chief of Nvidia - has achieved god-like status with investors hanging on his every word and his company valued at $3 trillion,
Billionaire Issa brothers end their partnership with Asda
Union says deal with âasset stripping' equity firm is bad news
Modi sets out his mandate to form a new government
Narendra Modi was formally elected yesterday as the leader of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, setting the stage for his third term as prime minister of India. While Mr Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell well short of the majority mark of 272 seats, winning only 240 seats in its own right, the NDA coalition together won 293 seats, some 61 ahead of the opposition INDIA alliance led by the Congress party.
Body count rises as Israeli tanks go deeper into Rafah
Israel has bombarded swathes of central and southern Gaza, while tanks have advanced to the western edges of the border city. In its latest update, the Israeli military said it had killed \"dozens\" of Hamas militants during operations in al-Bureij refugee camp and the nearby city of Deir al-Balah in central Gaza. Palestinian medics in the area reported that at least 15 civilians had been killed overnight in Israeli airstrikes.
EU voters close to Russia crave one thing above all
Mary Dejevsky travels to Finland, the Baltic states and Poland, where the issue of security is on everyone's mind
Ukraine racing against time to prepare for fresh assault
Allies used D-Day celebrations to underline their support for Kyiv, writes Kim Sengupta, but the West is struggling to find the production capacity for the munitions the country needs
Duke of Westminster ties the knot with William's help
Billionaire aristocrat Hugh Grosvenor, the Duke of Westminster, married Olivia Henson yesterday in a high society wedding at Chester Cathedral where the Prince of Wales acted as an usher.
Airport security glitch sees return to 100ml liquids rule
Ministers have ordered an astonishing emergency U-turn on airport security following concerns about new equipment that allows passengers to keep liquids in their hand luggage. Airports with the new scanners have been ordered to reimpose old rules from midnight tonight, meaning that travellers will be limited to carrying 100ml containers.