Caste, religion and other factors that will decide UP

Religion and caste are the biggest determining factors in the voting preferences of people in India, more so in Uttar Pradesh. It is a fact that out of political compulsions, BJP uses the religious card to woo Hindus, while other political parties use appeasement to garner Muslim support.

- RAJINDER KUMAR

The UP Assembly elections scheduled next month are one of the most defining events in the Modi-Shah era of Indian politics. Its outcome would decide how they could continue on their agenda of changing the very political discourse of the country.

Presently, some of the political pundits are elated over some defectors, claiming themselves to be the ‘maibaps' of smaller most backward castes (MBC), joining Samajwadi Party. The event is projected as the 'might of the minorities and backward classes forming a 'real secular' coalition. In their understanding, this might cause an incurable injury to BJP fortunes in 2024.

These 'experts' argue that the caste alliances forged by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, given his secular credentials, developmental work, firm support of Muslims and farmers' disenchantment manifested by the long-drawn agitation as well as the failure of Yogi Adityanath in managing the pandemic and lackluster performance of his regime, might make re-election of Yogi difficult.

Religion and caste are the biggest determining factors in the voting preference of people in India, more so in UP. It is a fact that out of political compulsions, BJP uses communal polarisation to woo Hindus while other political parties use appeasement to secure Muslim support.

Congress with a 6.3% vote share and BSP with 22.25% in 2017 elections are totally out of the reckoning. In such a scenario, even the die-hard supporters out of compulsion would shift to other political parties than to allow their vote to go waste and/or provide an opportunity to a party which they totally abhor coming to power.