L to R: Sanjay Bahl, group CFO, Raymond; Ramesh Swaminathan, CFO, Lupin; Kaizad Bharucha, ED, HDFC Bank; Bobby Parikh, founder, BMR Advisors; Rohitash Gupta, CFO, eClerx.
Outlook Business (OB): Has the effect of demonetisation been fully discounted?
Sanjay Bahl: I think if you look at the impact of demonetisation, there were three shocks: one was demand shock. Cash going out of the system led to a contraction in demand, especially on the consumer discretionary side. Second, the uncertainty about what the government will do next and, third, the overall impact on productivity as businesses, on the whole, have seen growth decelerating and that was evident in GDP growth as well. Though there is revival in certain urban pockets, interiors, smaller business channels and wholesale trade will take time to adjust as new models of doing business emerge.
OB: Kaizad, as a banker, do you see a deeper impact or is the pain just a matter of couple of quarters?
Kaizad Bharucha: On the basis of the interactions we’ve had across industries and customers, I think things have started looking up from the first fortnight of January. What it also shows is the inherent resilience of the Indian business community. Even in rural parts, people have found ways to keep commerce going; not just in mandis but also on the transport side. So, we are effectively seeing a sharp pullback in the current quarter.
OB: Bobby, is that the sense you get as well?
Bobby Parikh: I certainly don’t believe that we’ve put this behind us. In November and December, businesses have come off by 50 to 70% and, if at all, they are now probably at the same level year-on-year. This means that there has been no growth from December of last year to December this year and, as per your business plan, you would have wanted at least 15%20% growth. So, how much of the growth one will be able to recover in the next financial year is something that time will tell.
OB: Ramesh, do you agree with that?
この記事は Outlook Business の February 17, 2017 版に掲載されています。
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