An Australian perspective on strategic developments in the Indo-Pacific.
THE curse that ‘may you live in interesting times’ hit with a vengeance in 2016. From the unexpected result of the Brexit referendum to different manifestations of a global rise of populism as reflected in the elections in the Philippines and the US and the continuing turmoil over free trade agreements, managing the geostrategic environment is becoming increasingly challenging for a medium power like Australia. The future of China and its coercive behaviour in the South China Sea provide more uncertainty as Australia seeks to balance close economic relations with the Middle Kingdom and its alliance with the US.
Perhaps the greatest immediate concern for Australia will be the Trump administration’s unpredictability, given the President-elect’s predilection for ‘one-liners’, whether in interviews, speeches, or tweets. As has already been demonstrated in the phone call between the President of Taiwan and Mr Trump, it will not always be easy to distinguish between naivety, opportunism and well-considered policy.
However good its intent, much of what Australia can achieve will be constrained by the financial situation, both global and local. The country itself is faced with the need to reshape the national economy after the end of the boom in the market for natural resources that had been driven greatly by China’s rapid growth. Whether that reshaping will work depends as much on external developments as internal effort and Australia will have to work hard to ensure that the benefits of international free trade are not eroded in the interest of protectionism. This is not something wholly new in Australia’s relationship with the United States. Although such voices will be loud in the new administration, the US has always had a strong protectionist element, most notably in agriculture.
この記事は Outlook の January 16, 2017 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、8,500 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です ? サインイン
この記事は Outlook の January 16, 2017 版に掲載されています。
7 日間の Magzter GOLD 無料トライアルを開始して、何千もの厳選されたプレミアム ストーリー、8,500 以上の雑誌や新聞にアクセスしてください。
すでに購読者です? サインイン
Dera, Drugs And Despair
Punjab poll pitch is seeing interesting twists and turns this election season
Allure Of Hatefulness Beyond Hate Speech
Polarisation between the Hindus and the Muslims is an unappetising reality, an ugliness that will not go away even after the votes get counted
Shine Off Sonar Bangla
Since the ant displacement movements against the Left Front government in 2006-08, Bengal has seen increased corruption, communalisation of politics and the rise of welfarism
Carnatic Cauldron
For the BJP-led NDA, 400 paar will remain a dream if the South Indian states choose to look the other way
The Young & the Restless
A new crop of young Dalit leaders shine in Uttar Pradesh's political Armament
In The Name Of Ram
For the people of Hazaribagh, famous for its Ram Navamii, life is a tussle between peace, processions and politics
Shell Company?
The power play between the BJP and the BJD in Odisha appears to be an electoral gimmick. Post elections, they may have each other's back
Peak Season in the Pir Panjal
Politicians excel at stirring up emotions at election time, and Kashmiris are torn between responding with cries or slogans
Seeds of Betrayal
Forget about doubling their income, Haryana's farmers are living a life in penury
Capital Contest
Could an alliance of former foes prevent a hat-trick for the BJP in Delhi?