Putin Eyes a Bigger Prize Than Ukraine

Will the Russian leader spring a surprise at the upcoming Nato summit?

- Jonathan Eyal

Ukraine's June 1 drone strike deep inside Russian territory has left Russian officials humiliated. A nation that remains a significant global power has suddenly discovered that some of its most prized military assets—its long-range bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons—can be destroyed on the ground.

And despite being pounded by the full might of Russia's armed forces for more than three years, Ukraine still had both the audacity and ingenuity to mount such an attack. All these are unpleasant news for Russian President Vladimir Putin, so it was not surprising that, when Ukrainian and Russian mediators met in the Turkish city of Istanbul on June 2 to discuss options for a ceasefire in their war, the talks failed in just one hour.

But although Mr. Putin has been embarrassed by the brazen attack, he remains determined to pursue his invasion of Ukraine. For him, the stakes are higher than just subduing Ukraine—it is no less than splitting the existing alliance between the Europeans and the United States.

DIPLOMATIC GAMES

Although this was not immediately obvious, U.S. President Donald Trump's February decision to launch direct negotiations with Russia on ending the war unleashed a furious diplomatic game in which many governments shifted their positions.

Mr. Trump started this diplomatic process with the assumption that Russia was a much-misunderstood nation, which was provoked unnecessarily, that all that was required to stop the fighting was to satisfy Moscow's basic territorial demands, and that the obstacle to all this was Ukraine's obstinacy. So he offered to recognize Russia's occupation of around 20 percent of Ukrainian territory—making concessions at someone else's expense is always easy.