France holds its breath ahead of uncertain vote

France’s tense election campaign was on hold on July 6 on the eve of the final vote, but thoughts were turning to an uncertain future before polling even opens.

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The traditional final day pause ahead of the second round run-off on July 7 will do nothing to soothe fears of stalemate and stagnation in France, a world power and pillar of the European Union.

Final opinion polls on July 5 suggested that far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) would fall short of winning an outright majority in the National Assembly.

But President Emmanuel Macron’s gamble in calling snap elections to force a choice between his centrist path and the extremes of left and right has not paid off.

He now faces the final three years of his presidency with no clear ruling majority, and Prime Minister Gabriel Attal perhaps trying to hold together a caretaker government.

According to pollsters Ipsos and Ifop, the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN could secure 170 to 210 seats in the National Assembly – well short of 289, an absolute majority.

The Ipsos-Talan poll for Le Monde, Radio France and France Televisions has the RN coming in just ahead of left-wing alliance the New Popular Front, on between 145 and 175 seats.