China's Green Paradox: Cleaner at Home, Digging Dirt Abroad

Beijing's rush to secure minerals from poor countries renews questions on whether it can truly be a global climate leader.

- Tan Dawn Wei

As the world grapples with the grave effects of climate change and the urgent task of dealing with it, China has provided some optimism with signs that its carbon emissions might have peaked, even as its demand for power surges at home.

Recent analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) showed that for the first time, China's carbon emissions have declined thanks to its solar, wind and nuclear energy investments, a growing share of electric vehicles on the road and a drop in cement and steel production.

While there have been previous dips, they were caused by economic slowdown and the Covid-19 pandemic. But this time around, the drop has occurred even as the country's electricity demand continues to grow – a signal that the world's largest emitter may be decoupling economic growth from carbon pollution.

Beijing has set a target for peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

Granted, the decline might be slight – emissions fell by 1 per cent over the past 12 months, including a 1.6 per cent drop in the first quarter of 2025 – and there is the possibility that it could rebound to a record high, said the report's author, CREA lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta.

But if current trends hold, China could be reaching a turning point that would mark a symbolic and strategic breakthrough for global climate action and empower China to take on a stronger leadership role.

Yet, there is a paradox behind this promising trajectory. In July, a report released by Griffith Asia Institute and Fudan University's Green Finance and Development Centre showed that China's engagement in projects under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was the highest in any six-month period, with US$66.2 billion (S$85.2 billion) in construction contracts and US$57.1 billion in investments.