Doge the Accelerant in American Decline

Republican legislators find that the new efficiency department's actions are not universally popular. The US courts have already begun disallowing cancellation of contracts and terminations

- SATYAJIT DAS

The acronym for the new US Department of Government Efficiency, DOGE, was historically the chief magistrate of Venice or Genoa. The phonetic 'dodgy' is defined as dishonest, likely to fail, or causing problems or pain.

DOGE's plan to reduce waste is being run in imperial fashion by the multi-skilled super 'genius' Elon Musk and is likely to fail with significant collateral damage.

The government's revenue and spending are around $5.5 trillion and $7 trillion, respectively. DOGE is targeting expenditure cuts of around $2 trillion. It claims to have cut $100 billion, although real savings may be only $2-$10 billion. Eliminating 25 percent of federal employees saves 1 percent and terminating USAID only 0.6 percent.

Meaningful spending reductions require politically toxic cuts to defense, social security, Medicare/Medicaid, veterans' benefits, defense, and interest payments, constituting 75 percent of federal spending.

The cuts ignore the costs of DOGE actions. Cancelling contracts incurs payment for completed work and penalties. Fired workers get termination payments. At around $100,000 per head, $7.5 billion is the cost of 75,000 employees taking deferred resignations against annual savings of $11.6 billion if they are not replaced—unlikely if they perform essential tasks.

The plan won't reduce the budget deficit and debt. Extending tax cuts, eliminating taxes on social security, tips and overtime, and reinstating state and local tax deductions will reduce revenues by around $900 billion annually. Over the next decade, the deficit may rise from $2 trillion to $3.6 trillion due to rising payouts for social security, aged care, and health care. Where once five workers financially supported every retiree, there are now three, which will eventually be two.