Benefit cuts 'could cost Labour 80 seats'

At least 80 Labour MPs are at risk of losing their majorities over proposed welfare cuts, according to data shared between Labour MPs who are warning the government that the changes "pose a real electoral risk".

- Jessica Elgot

The analysis suggests almost 200 Labour MPs have a majority smaller than the number of recipients of personal independence payments (Pip) in their constituencies - many of which are "red wall" seats in northern England.

Not all of those Pip recipients will be affected by the changes but more than 80 Labour MPs have a majority that is smaller than the number of disabled people who may have their benefits cut.

MPs have told the Guardian that an organising campaign to oppose welfare reforms is stepping up action over the Easter recess, with a vote expected in June.

Labour rebels believe they may be able to secure as many as 50 MPs to vote against the changes. One MP who opposes the changes said party whips had been suggesting some MPs may be quietly allowed to abstain on the vote.

A number of disaffected but loyal Labour MPs who do not want to rebel have been encouraging a letter-writing campaign directly to Keir Starmer to urge changes to the cuts or pledges of more action to tackle poverty before the vote, saying it was "pointless" to lobby the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

More hardline MPs are planning a mass public intervention in the weeks after parliament returns, the Guardian has been told.

The Office for Budget Responsibility has suggested about 52% of current claimants do not score high enough on their current assessment to remain eligible for Pip, though many would be likely to challenge any reassessment.

Cabinet members and senior ministers are among those who have smaller majorities than the number of constituents expected to be affected by the welfare overhaul.