A RELATIONSHIP IN FOUR CRISES: HOW INDIA AND RUSSIA KEEP FINDING THEIR WAY BACK TO EACH OTHER

The annexation of Crimea in 2014 was New Delhi's first encounter with major Russia-West confrontation since 1991, and it tested India's vaunted “strategic autonomy.” As Russia moved into Ukrainian territory, India shunned Western demands to condemn Moscow.

- TDG NETWORK

A poster showing an images of Vladimir Putin and a message reading "Welcome!" in New Delhi.

In late 2025 New Delhi finds itself navigating a complex sanctions maze. Washington and Brussels have hit Moscow with sweeping financial penalties, making even routine trade with Russia difficult. India's refiners once flush with steeply discounted Russian crude - are pulling back. Imports in November 2025 hit roughly 1.85 million barrels per day, but as new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil kicked in, December volumes were expected to tumble to only 0.6-0.65 mbpd (a three-year low).

To pay for what they do buy, Delhi and Moscow have built a rupee-rouble payment channel - even discussing linking India's RuPay card with Russia's Mir network. In theory this insulates trade from dollar clearing. In practice, exporters report payment delays and bank defections: billions of rupees are stuck idle and "millions of dollars" of Russian dividends owed to Indian firms remain frozen in Russian banks. Even defense deals feel the pinch: India has received three of five S-400 air-defense batteries it ordered, but the remaining two are delayed by the war-induced supply crunch and Western sanctions.

India insists it will not be "told whom to trade with," maintaining that its stand (opposing the war and seeking a diplomatic solution) has not changed. But every new step - from additional S-400 orders to expanded rupee payments - is now scrutinized. Traders and analysts note that New Delhi must balance its century-old friendship with Moscow against increasingly tough US pressure. The upshot: India's leaders are racing to secure oil and arms before sanctions tighten further, even as they innovate payment workarounds to keep the relationship alive.