The telling pause in the US-Israel war on Iran

Washington entered the war against Iran as the clear favourite.

- Happymon Jacob

It has now paused the war, offering lessons for everyone in how not to fight a war.Of course, Iran couldn't defeat the US militarily. It only needed to survive, on its own terms. And it did, visibly and defiantly for 39 days, against the world’s lone superpower. In such a war, survival alone would have been victory.

But Iran managed something more than mere survival. It walked away with its Strait of Hormuz card still in hand, its regime intact, and its own 10-point framework on the negotiating table as the agenda for the next two weeks. Tehran has also amply demonstrated the limits of American military power and the sustainability of Washington’s political resolve.

Read it alongside the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 — two moments, five years apart, in which the world’s most powerful military walked back from a war it could not win, let alone finish honourably. It took 17 years the last time, and it took 39 days this time.

To be fair: Washington’s failure must be measured against its own stated aims: Obliterate Iran’s ballistic missile capability, annihilate its navy, sever its support for proxy networks, and ensure it never acquires a nuclear weapon.

Thirty-nine days later, the regime is mostly intact, the military is severely damaged but far from obliterated, and Iran's nuclear programme is still in play. Iran gave no quarter, yielded to no ultimatum, and paused this war to fight another day, if need be. On March 6, US President Donald Trump posted on social media: “There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender.” It took him just two days to reverse that. Of course, Trump was bluffing; but if you use a bluff for too long, it becomes a joke.