Is Trump Winning on Economic Policy?

Six months into his second term, it is fair to say that US President Donald Trump has swept the board when it comes to economic policy — at least by the standards he set for himself.

- KENNETH ROGOFF

In fact, he has imposed his will to a degree no other post-World War II President, with the possible exception of Ronald Reagan, has been able to achieve.

For starters, Mr. Trump got his One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed, despite a razor-thin majority in the House of Representatives and credible projections that his signature tax and spending package will add more than $3 trillion to the federal deficit over the coming decade. And the southern US border is now more tightly controlled than it has been in decades. On tariffs in particular, Mr. Trump got what he wanted. Europe and Japan effectively capitulated — agreeing to eliminate their own trade barriers while accepting a 15 percent US tariff on their exports. Given these humiliating terms, it was more than a little absurd to see European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hail the deal as a success simply because Mr. Trump backed down from his initial threat of a 30 percent tariff.

Both the European Union and Japan also committed to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in the US economy, with Mr. Trump exerting significant influence over where that money would be directed. His self-styled "Tariff Man" persona clearly rattled world leaders, many of whom failed to recognize that his threats were unsustainable in the long run. In retrospect, they would have been better off calling his bluff.