Retail group says holiday spending could top $1tn

Holiday shopping is underway as inflation, import-tariff pressures and the longest government shutdown, in history have increased uncertainty for US retailers and consumers.

- KAILYN RHONE

Shoppers load purchases in a car at a Walmart in Albany, New York, last November.

Despite these challenges, the National Retail Federation issued a surprisingly rosy forecast for the season.

The group, which lobbies on behalf of retailers, said Thursday it expected holiday sales to rise between 3.7% and 4.2% over last year. The federation also predicted spending would reach as much as $1.02 trillion, compared with $976.1 billion last year.

The group defines the holiday season as the period from Nov 1 to Dec 31 and excludes spending at auto dealers, petrol stations and restaurants.

“Somehow every year, Santa Claus always comes, and I think that really captures the way the holiday season goes,” said Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, on a call with reporters. “People save for it, they plan for it, they prioritise it. And we think that that's going to happen again this year”

Deloitte also said it expected holiday retail sales to top $1 trillion. The company reported in its annual holiday forecast in September that it projected holiday sales would total about $1.6 trillion during the November to January time frame.