Donald Trump’s China trade policy is a hot mess

As a real estate developer, Donald Trump is deeply familiar with the three keys to success in that industry: location, location and location.

- Thomas Friedman

A large screen shows news footage of Chinese and US flags during the bilateral meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Busan South Korea, on Oct 30.

(REUTERS)

Geopolitics, it turns out, also has three keys to success: leverage, leverage and leverage. But it’s not the kind of leverage (i.e. debt) that Mr Trump loved to use in real estate. It's geopolitical leverage — the power to impose your will on your adversary.

Seen from that point of view, Mr Trump succeeded in bringing about a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip because he gained leverage over both Israel and Hamas — and he used it adroitly. He has failed to bring about a ceasefire in Ukraine, because he has refused to use all the leverage he has on Russia's Vladimir Putin, who started the war. And Mr Trump's attempts to employ the leverage of tariffs to reduce China's manufacturing exports to America — more necessary today than ever — has shown only limited gains largely because of the chaotic way Mr Trump has gone about putting those tariffs into place.

Of course, Mr Trump, with his usual bluster, scored his recent meeting with President Xi Jinping of China as a grand slam — “a 12” on ascale of 0-10, as he putit. In fact, at this summit, all Mr Trump did was dig himself out ofa hole with China that he himself dug a few months ago. As The Wall Street Journal noted, markets “yawned” at the deal because it “mostly restores the status quo that prevailed in May”

So, if you're keeping score at home, Mr Trump is batting one for three — or .333. In baseball, that can get you into the All-Star Game. In the game of nations, it gets you sent down to the minor leagues.

Why .333? Let's focus on China, which is the most important geostrategic, geoeconomic issue for America today.