Why by-election after tragedy affects all of us

The by-election to replace Hefin David is happening in the most tragic of circumstances but it is not an irrelevance and will tell us a lot, argues Political editor Ruth Mosalski

- Ruth Mosalski

THE WORD by-election doesn’t usually conjure excitement in most circles.

But by October 24, when the votes are counted to determine who the next Senedd Member for Caerphilly is, the result will be more than a snapshot of the political climate in Wales.

There are numerous ways in which it could be interesting, but it could have an absolutely massive impact on everyone.

The by-election is happening in the most tragic of circumstances, the death of a 47-year-old father. But such is the world of politics, Hefin David's post cannot be left vacant and the rules dictate an election day needs to be declared. So two days after his funeral, a short but concise statement from the Senedd’s Llywydd said that people in Caerphilly will be asked to go to their polling booths on October 23.

A lot of disclaimers are given about by-elections by analysts, warning how they're not really an accurate reading of the national picture and we shouldn't take a single by-election result and make big projections about what it will mean when there is a general election.

However, there are two key things this by-election will teach us. Firstly, how Reform is actually doing and secondly, the very real danger of a Welsh Government budget failing to pass next year.

Not only would that prospect have a massive impact on anyone who uses any council service, or healthcare, education, national park or service in Wales. But it would also set the battleground for a deeply bitter Welsh election in May next year.

First up, the threat of Reform.

Caerphilly is a Labour seat. It's only ever been represented by Labour in both the Senedd and Westminster.

Yet in 2016, Ukip (remember them?) took a huge chunk of Labour votes. Reform is now posing a threat to the political status quo in Wales and this will be the first big test of how those polls will translate to reality when people come to vote.