FRAGILE STABILITY: GAZA AID AMID TENSE TRUCE

The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas marks a fragile stability, addressing immediate concerns but leaving future challenges unresolved.

- Ruchira Talapatra

The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, also referred to as the "Gaza deal," represents a significant yet fragile step in addressing the longstanding conflict.

This analysis delves into the nuances of the agreement, the factors leading to its fruition, and the implications for the region.

NEGOTIATION DYNAMICS

The ceasefire agreement, finalized on January 15, 2025, followed intense indirect negotiations mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.

Talks were conducted with representatives from both sides located on separate floors of the same building in Doha, highlighting the tension and mistrust inherent in the process. The involvement of key international players, including U.S. President Joe Biden's administration and the incoming Trump administration, underscored the global stakes of the conflict.

The deal's framework mirrors a three-phase plan proposed earlier by President Biden, encompassing a ceasefire, an exchange of hostages and prisoners, and a phased Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. This structured approach was designed to build incremental trust and reduce the risk of immediate breakdowns.

FACTORS LEADING TO THE AGREEMENT

Several key developments altered the dynamics and created conditions conducive to the ceasefire:

1. Military setbacks for Hamas: The killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and successful Israeli operations against its regional allies, such as Hezbollah, weakened Hamas' strategic position. These events diminished the group's leverage and isolated it regionally.

2. International pressure: Both the Biden administration and Trump's incoming team exerted substantial pressure on Israel and Hamas. Trump's blunt demands for a deal before his inauguration underscored the urgency.