Another stalemate?

After more than three years of brutal conflict, the promise of peace in Ukraine still hangs precariously in the balance.

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In the aftermath of Operation Sindoor and the horrific April 22 attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, where 26 civilians, mostly tourists, lost their lives, the government's sharpened focus on the Indus river system marks a significant shift in India's strategic posture. As national grief turned into political resolve, Delhi's response has included suspending its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and fast-tracking infrastructure on rivers allocated to Pakistan. But while the impulse to retaliate is understandable, India's move to potentially weaponise water could be a perilous path, both diplomatically and environmentally. The IWT, signed in 1960, has withstood wars, border skirmishes, and diplomatic frost. It has long been viewed as a rare example of pragmatic cooperation between two hostile neighbours. India's decision to re-evaluate the treaty and pursue unilateral hydrological projects, like doubling the length of the Ranbir canal on the Chenab, may seem like a demonstration of sovereignty and strength. Yet, it raises questions about long-term consequences. First, any significant diversion of Indus waters would take years to implement. Projects of this scale involve complex engineering, significant environmental assessments, and financial investment. Yet the political optics of such plans, especially in the wake of Pahalgam, can inflame tensions faster than any dam can be built. Islamabad has already declared that such diversions would constitute an act of war, highlighting how water, once a tool for peace, is now emerging as a geopolitical fault line. India must also recognise that any disruption to Indus flows can worsen already dire economic and social conditions in Pakistan, potentially fuelling greater instability in the region. Strategic advantage must not come at the cost of regional collapse or humanitarian fallout. Secondly, India's credibility as a responsible upper riparian state is at stake. If Delhi unil