In make-or-break week, PM isn't master of his own fate

It’s another case of one step forward, two steps back for Rishi Sunak.

- ANDREW GRICE

After he enjoyed a rare good week, in which he created dividing lines with Labour on welfare reform, defence spending and his Rwanda scheme, Sunak’s momentum came to a sudden halt when Dan Poulter, the former health minister who is a part-time NHS mental health doctor, defected to Labour.

It was a symbolic reminder of the deep hole Sunak remains in, and that the real momentum remains with Labour. The Tories have regarded Poulter as semi-detached for a while, and assume he will be made a peer by Labour. He won’t trigger a by-election in his Central Suffolk and North Ipswich seat, but will stand down at the election and hopes to advise Labour on mental health.

For Sunak, the timing of Poulter’s move was terrible – and no doubt intended to be by Labour. Sunak needed a clear run on more favourable terrain up to Thursday’s local and mayoral elections in England, which were always going to make this a make-or-break week for the prime minister. The election results, with the Tories expecting to lose half of the 900 seats they are defending, offer Sunak’s right-wing critics the last realistic opportunity to oust him before the general election. Although a hard core of rebels might carry on plotting, they would be unlikely to win the backing of mainstream Tories for a putsch against Sunak if he survives the local election fallout.