A 1C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world gross domestic product (GDP), the researchers found, a far higher estimate than that of previous analyses. The world has already warmed by more than 1C since pre-industrial times and many climate scientists predict a 3C rise by the end of this century due to the ongoing burning of fossil fuels, a scenario that the new working paper, yet to be peer-reviewed, states will come with an enormous economic cost.
A 3C temperature increase will cause "precipitous declines in output, capital and consumption that exceed 50% by 2100" the paper states. This economic loss is so severe that it is "comparable to the economic damage caused by fighting a war permanently," it adds.
"There will still be some economic growth happening but by the end of the century people may well be 50% poorer than they would have been if it wasn't for climate change," said Adrien Bilal, an economist at Harvard who wrote the paper with Diego Känzig, an economist at Northwestern University.
Esta historia es de la edición May 18, 2024 de The Guardian.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 8500 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor ? Conectar
Esta historia es de la edición May 18, 2024 de The Guardian.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 8500 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor? Conectar
'Panic mode' Bosses pressing mechanics to keep quiet, says worker at Everett site
Boeing's largest factory is in \"panic mode\", workers and union officials say, with managers accused of hounding staff to keep quiet over quality concerns.
Mushrooming popularity of homegrown fungi 'could lead to biodiversity disaster'
An increase in the number of people growing mushrooms in their garden could lead to a biodiversity disaster similar to those caused by Japanese knotweed and other invasive plants, experts have warned.
Papua New Guinea PM makes first visit to site of landslide as death toll rises
Papua New Guinea's prime minister, James Marape, has made his first visit to a remote village hit by a deadly landslide last week, and thanked international aid donors for their support.
'It's a battle for the soul of our society' Israeli peace activists stand together to protect aid convoys from settlers
At approximately 10.30am on a scorching Monday, a group of five young Israeli settlers arrived at the Tarqumiya checkpoint, west of Hebron in the West Bank, where dozens of aid trucks bound for Gaza were expected.
South African coalition government on the cards after ANC vote collapses
South Africa was yesterday facing the uncertainty of a coalition government after the former president Jacob Zuma's new party upended the country's elections, contributing to the African National Congress party's vote share collapsing.
Royal rift All eyes on princes as duke gets married
When Hugh Grosvenor, the 7th Duke of Westminster, 33, marries Olivia Henson, 31, at Chester Cathedral next week he will relinquish the status bestowed by society bibles of Britain's most eligible bachelor.
Spain fines four airlines £128m over 'abusive' extra fees
Budget airlines including easyJet and Ryanair have been hit with fines totalling €150m (£128m) by the Spanish government for policies that include charging passengers extra for cabin luggage.
Political adverts 'Microtargeting ditched for big spending splurge
Don't expect to see Cambridge Analyticastyle microtargeted adverts political driven by personal data during this general election: the tactic is now considered by many to be an ineffective \"red herring\" and is increasingly being blocked by social media platforms.
'It's not just Gaza' Historically safe Labour seat where voters say party could struggle
On a Wednesday afternoon, despite the pouring rain, Alum Rock Road is buzzing.
Analysis Prime minister's policy blitz fails to move polls
Rishi Sunak is heading to the north-east today for a rare foray into the \"red wall\" after a campaign that has so far focused on shoring up the Conservative party's older, more affluent southern base.