A falling rupee and unstable oil prices may threaten recent robust growth, hitting trade in particular
AN unsteady rupee together with continuing volatility in crude oil prices in the wake of US sanctions against Iran and Russia have become a major cause of worry for India. The downward slide of the rupee over the last several weeks was triggered by the US Treasury Department’s move on April 16 when it put India—for the first time—on a list of countries being monitored for possible currency manipulation. In addition, US President Donald Trump’s protection ist moves have not helped India. The country is yet to work out how to minimise the impact on consumers as crude oil prices hover over $75 per barrel and the rupee sliding to more than 67 rupees to the dollar. For India, which dep ends on imports for over 75 per cent of its crude oil demand, a weak rupee is a big drawback as it threatens to undo the last quarter’s robust economic growth. A major concern for policymakers is, will global oil prices scale over $80 per barrel in the near future, as witnessed recently before the slide to $75 levels?
With the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stepping in, the rupee slide has been stemmed for now at below Rs 68/dollar. Despite this, the question—worrying importers in particular—is whether the rupee will fall further. “We look for a range of Rs 66.50–Rs 69.50 for the next three months, with a weakening bias for rupees. Further on, the rupee’s movement will depend a lot on the crude oil price,” says Vikram Murarka, chief currency strategist, Kshitij Consultancy Services. He clarifies that contrary to popular perception, crude oil strength or weakness doesn’t translate to longterm rupee weakness or strength.
Esta historia es de la edición June 18, 2018 de Outlook.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 8500 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor ? Conectar
Esta historia es de la edición June 18, 2018 de Outlook.
Comience su prueba gratuita de Magzter GOLD de 7 días para acceder a miles de historias premium seleccionadas y a más de 8500 revistas y periódicos.
Ya eres suscriptor? Conectar
My Secular Mentor
A rare psychologist of Indian culture, Sudhir Kakar leaves behind seminal works that will have relevance for many generations
Battle of the Bahubalis
Gangsters in Bihar no longer enjoy the kind of dominance that they did in the 90s, but that has not kept them away from politics
Memories of Riots
Have frequent communal tensions changed the social fabric of Bihar?
Didi's Achilles Heel
Mamata Banerjee stays the course but her party, plagued by corruption charges, spins out of control
Memory Metamorphosis
What happened on March 14, 2007 in Nandigram? People still ask this question as they take part in the dance of democracy
Minority Report
He has not lost the Dhubri seat in Assam since 2009. Now he is fighting for political survival as Bengali Muslims look to favour the Congress
THE POWER OF PURPOSE
Doing good is good business as it transcends bottom lines and impacts lives positively, yielding profits that go beyond numbers.
CURRENT FARMING METHODS ARE EXACERBATING CLIMATE CHANGE
Andhra Pradesh Community Managed Natural Farming (APCNF) project is supporting transition of 850,000 farmers covering 377,801 hectares of land and operating in 3730 villages. \"Natural farming is in harmony with nature. It is a holistic land management practice that leverages the power of photosynthesis in plants\", says Mr. T Vijay Kumar, a retired IAS officer, who is the Executive Vice Chairman of Rythu Sadhikara Samstha, a non-profit organization set up by the Andhra Pradesh government in 2014. Since 2016, this platform has been utilized to integrate and promote APCNF activities, aimed at fostering the overall development and empowerment of farmers. Excerpts from an interview with Mr T Vijay Kumar:
IN PURSUIT OF SUSTAINABILITY
Harshavardhana Gourineni, Executive Director, Amara Raja Energy & Mobility Ltd, in an interview shares how through its products and operations the company is helping reduce carbon footprints and meet SDGs. Excerpts:
COOLING NO MORE A LUXURY, BUT A NECESSITY
With the rise in demand of air conditioners due to heat stress, sustainable air conditioning is the way forward to bring relief to people as well as manage emissions