The Global Order Is Coming Apart, And Liberal Democracy Is Under Threat. Welcome To 2018

MARKETS ARE SOARING, BUT THERE ARE DEEP DIVISIONS among citizens of both developed and developing countries as we enter 2018. Liberal democracy is leaking legitimacy, and the global order is unraveling.

- Ian Bremmer

Consequently, this year looks especially ripe for an unexpected crisis: the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown. The risk of a geopolitical depression—as the U.S.-led order erodes and no other country or set of countries stands ready or interested to rebuild it—forms the backdrop for Eurasia Group’s top 10 risks this year:

1. CHINA RISING

At a moment of policy incoherence in Washington, Beijing has redefined China’s external environment, developed the world’s most effective global trade and investment strategy, and used tech companies to advance state interests. The global business environment must adapt to China’s new sets of rules, standards and practices. U.S.-China conflicts, especially involving trade, will become more likely.

2. ACCIDENTS

There arguably hasn’t been a major geopolitical crisis since 9/11, but there are now many places where a misstep or misjudgment could provoke serious conflict, including cyberspace, North Korea, the crowded Syrian battlefield, and Russia and Europe as ISIS fighters from Syria and Iraq disperse.

3. THE TECH COLD WAR