As Aukus cools, can Quad be far behind?

US President Donald Trump's 'America First' strategy has forced US allies to hedge their bets and mend fences with China.

- Ravi Velloor

Asked about the revival of the Quad in March 2018, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's dismissive comment was that while there was no shortage of headline-grabbing news, all this would dissipate "like foam on the Pacific and Indian oceans".

The remarks were seen as sour Chinese grapes at the time, and subsequent events, for a period, made Mr Wang look like he had made an error of judgment. But could Mr Wang have been right after all?

On the face of it, Quad—short for Quadrilateral Security Dialogue—is inching towards being a regional security arrangement, which really was the late Japanese premier Shinzo Abe's vision when he began promoting the concept in 2007.

On July 2, 2025, Quad nation coast guard officers completed their first joint sail on board Stratton, a US Coast Guard cutter, which pulled into Guam's Apra Harbour five days after departing Palau, Micronesia. It was the first time that officers from all four nations—the US, Australia, India and Japan—had drilled together on a single vessel and the most significant security development within Quad since 2020, the year navies of the four had participated in a joint exercise as part of Exercise Malabar, the annual US-India naval wargame.

Subsequently, official-level meetings grew into leaders' summits over video link in 2021, then in-person summits, the last held in then President Joe Biden's home town of Wilmington in September 2024. New Delhi is billed to host the next Quad summit later in 2025.